A second major theme emphasizes the interrelatedness of choices. Decisions made in one area, such as the family, frequently have significant implications for other areas, such as work or health. There are also important connections between choices at different stages of life: schooling decisions affect future earnings, choices about smoking affect future health, and work when young affects work opportunities later in life. An under-standing of the interrelatedness of life’s stages is particularly important in framing public policies. Policies aimed at behavior at a given stage can affect behavior not only at that stage but later in life and, if anticipated. at earlier stages as well. We will also see how programs undertaken for one purpose, such as aid to disadvantaged children, can have other consequences, such as in-creases in divorce and in births to unwed mothers.
Within this framework of inescapable, interrelated choices, the data examined in this book lead to three other themes: “the fading family,” “demography and destiny,” and “wanting and waiting.” Several recent studies claim that the family is as strong as ever; but such claims lack credibility when, as we shall see, the birth rate has been below replacement level for a decade, when almost 25 percent of children live in one-parent or no-parent households, when two out of five marriages end in divorce, and when most of the elderly depend on the government for their daily sustenance. My reading of the data leads to a more troubled conclusion about American families, In describing the decline in importance of the conjugal family, however, I am not predicting its disappearance; neither am I denying others the right to redefine the term “family” as they wish. But there is overwhelming evidence that individuals rely less on their families today than in the past for the production of goods and services and as a source of financial and psychological
support in time of need.